The General Theory Of Fossil Death Spirals
A fuel security crisis, a fossil death spiral and an underwhelming resource sector plan walk into a bar.
Another regional conflict precipitating another energy security crisis has your intrepid hosts feeling some deja vu as we find ourselves in an increasingly familiar setting as we contemplate the opportunities and challenges presented in the current US-Israel war on Iran. Beyond the horrific human toll of the Trump administration’s latest incoherent, all-tactics-no-strategy foray into the Middle East, there are some complex consequences to world energy markets playing out and it’s too soon to tell where this all goes from here. Global oil prices? Spiking! And likely to lead to airfare cost increases. Gas prices? Also spiking! But not in Australia, say whaaat? Like we said, ‘It’s Complicated’.
Our main course
We stick solidly ON THEME this week with ‘Fossil energy minimum viable scale: unseen infrastructural threats to safety and decarbonization may arise as fossil energy systems are phased out’ from Joshua Lappen and Emily Grubert, published recently in Science. This compact paper packs a punch and has a couple of big ideas to engage with. One is that energy transition types have been want to assume legacy fossil fuel infrastructure will carry on at the required capacity over the required timeframes to see replacement renewables in place. NOT SO say our authors, who contend that minimum viable scales for operation are not well understood and are certainly not being factored into planning for the transition, when it comes to physical, financial and managerial constraints. Their advice? DO better modelling, planning and managing of these issues at an asset level. Elements of this paper felt super familiar (hello gas distribution network death spiral) whole others worrying novel (oh hi there fuel-refinery-that-won’t-operate-under-65%-capacity). Liked the provocations here we did!
One more things
Tennant’s One More Thing is: Cloud Carrier’s proposal to power a new data centre in NSW entirely by natural gas. Lots of debates sure to come!
Frankie’s One More Thing is: continued excitement at all things methane abatement focused, from the CCA’s stated priority to look at this in 2026 to the NSW EPA’s consultation on measures it may implement to reduce or destroy fugitive methane emissions from coal mining.
Luke’s One More Thing is: listener voicemail from none other than Baethan Mullen, CEO of the Superpower Institute, who left us a note with his reaction to our reaction to their recent paper on pricing carbon pollution. Thanks TSI for keeping us busy reading your excellent work!
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