T•R•E•N•D•S: The One Where Tim, Mira, Emm And Alex Model Net Zero Pathways
Your intrepid hosts dig into Treasury’s modelling on Australia’s Net Zero Transformation, one of the flagships in the flotilla of climate reports launched by the Albanese Government last week.
Time is running out to get your tickets for Chaos Trivia!
Team LMSU is joining forces with the fabulous folks from Currently Speaking for a blockbuster crossover event, with special guests, the NEMchat Singers. Chaos Trivia is set for the first night of the All Energy Conference on Wednesday 29 October in Melbourne, and as predicted, tickets are selling like hotcakes with only a few left! There will be trivia! Role playing? Musical interludes! Food! Drinks! And Tennant is still committed to some wizard cosplay! All proceeds go to the First Nations Clean Energy Network so - RUN, don’t walk and snag tix for you or a whole trivia team.
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Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a target! Your intrepid hosts reflect on the many and varied reactions to the slick and stage managed birthing of the Climate Change Authority’s advice on a 2035 target and the Government’s acceptance of their advice to adopt a target of 62-70% emissions reduction on 2005 levels by 2035.
Simultaneously declared “Economy wrecking” (Opposition), “Weak and disappointing” (Greens) and “The sweet spot” (Prime Minister Albanese), it looks like business groups broadly land in the “benign toleration” camp and environment groups unhappy with the bottom end of the range. What do we reckon? The real debate starts now on the level of ambition needed in the policies to get to the top of the range—especially since current policies only get us to about 51% by 2035.
Looking for fodder for your own opinion? Check out the op-eds penned by Luke and Adam Morton, and Adam's conversation with CCA Chair Matt Kean.
Our main course
It wasn’t just the targets the Government served up last week that had your intrepid hosts salivating at the degustation menu of climate policy offerings to sample. Treasury modelling, NDCs, sector plans, OH MY!
But y’all know the LMSU crew can’t resist the sweet tantalising temptation of a seriously nerdy modelling exercise and so it was decided - there was never really any question - to the Treasury buffet we go! With three scenarios to unpack, a friendship of climate models used - TIM, MIRA, EMM, ALEX, anyone? There was a lot to digest in here!
Eye watering economic upsides for green exports, signalling on declining fossil fuel exports, the cost of delay and some seriously refreshing honesty about limitations of modelling, there was something for everyone here and some significant foundations being laid for the future debate of climate policy in Australia.
One more things
Tennant’s One More Thing is: a fun Well Actually post, “Why every Sankey diagram you’ve ever seen is wrong” by Michael Liebreich
Frankie’s One More Thing is: a shout out from Marian Wilkinson in response to our recent episode on her Quarterly Essay on Woodside, saying she wanted to provoke a broader discussion on the influence of large companies like Woodside on federal and state politics and local communities. Love your work Marian!
Luke’s One More Thing is: a plug for his other podcast, First Fuel, which features his recent interview with Dr. Saul Griffiths at the Energy in WA conference in which Saul predicts the economics of electrification will spur a rapid decline in gas exports and urged a pivot to clean commodities.
And that’s it for now, Summerupperers. There is now a one-stop-shop for all your LMSU needs: head to
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